* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 44 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 44 38 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 43 38 34 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 14 15 17 18 20 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 123 125 124 129 130 142 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.4 22.3 22.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 103 99 96 93 83 82 81 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 42 39 36 36 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -19 -26 -20 -9 -12 4 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -8 -15 -12 -4 -20 0 -18 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 835 867 907 950 997 1085 1170 1257 1318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.1 122.9 123.6 124.3 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -21. -25. -29. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -17. -22. -32. -43. -51. -61. -67. -73. -76. -79. -81. -84. -87. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.9 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##