* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 72 66 52 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 72 66 52 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 69 62 49 38 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 11 11 14 14 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 122 117 121 119 111 122 122 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.1 25.5 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.8 22.6 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 118 111 101 92 88 86 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 53 50 46 42 37 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 19 17 17 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -40 -34 -26 -32 -37 -22 -21 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 -16 -8 -1 -6 -11 -9 3 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 1 2 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 688 741 772 797 832 911 1007 1106 1206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.2 120.1 121.0 121.8 123.2 124.4 125.5 126.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -42. -45. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -3. -9. -23. -36. -49. -61. -67. -71. -74. -75. -76. -77. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 21.8 118.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 584.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##