* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 50 45 42 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 56 50 45 42 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 56 49 44 40 35 29 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 5 3 9 13 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -1 -1 -2 0 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 95 117 150 155 173 195 184 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.1 24.1 23.9 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 109 107 106 103 104 102 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 42 41 41 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 14 13 12 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 51 55 50 51 59 47 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 18 25 -4 1 15 -18 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 7 3 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1741 1746 1759 1774 1858 1972 1989 1765 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.6 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 128.8 129.1 129.6 130.1 131.6 133.6 135.8 138.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -23. -29. -37. -46. -54. -56. -58. -60. -61. -62. -62. -62. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##