* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 45 45 44 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 45 45 44 39 32 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 39 38 34 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 2 3 8 10 13 13 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 2 1 2 -1 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 44 48 68 79 107 110 111 124 118 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.7 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.4 23.0 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 136 130 118 108 100 95 90 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 59 56 54 52 47 45 42 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 19 19 16 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -38 -48 -48 -55 -58 -49 -50 -41 -21 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 14 0 5 -6 -6 -26 -22 -3 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 2 -2 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 518 537 566 611 665 763 820 899 994 1099 1197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.6 22.3 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.3 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.4 116.1 117.0 117.8 119.6 121.2 122.6 124.0 125.3 126.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -6. -13. -20. -27. -35. -35. -35. -35. -34. -34. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.7 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.60 5.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.75 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 21.5% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 8.0% 7.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##