* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 115 107 98 84 70 54 41 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 118 115 107 98 84 70 54 41 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 115 108 99 90 75 64 54 45 38 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 7 5 6 4 6 11 12 11 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 4 3 0 0 -2 -2 5 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 96 143 162 141 96 120 147 181 188 173 163 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.7 23.5 24.9 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 125 118 114 110 108 104 101 100 98 113 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 51 48 45 43 41 37 35 32 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 14 13 11 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -6 1 18 30 42 65 78 85 84 79 62 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -9 -6 -13 0 2 -4 5 -5 -6 10 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -11 -6 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 9 10 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1717 1721 1726 1727 1729 1754 1801 1889 1964 1924 1670 1407 1159 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.3 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.5 127.0 127.5 127.9 128.3 129.2 130.4 132.0 134.0 136.5 139.1 141.8 144.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 8 10 11 12 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -14. -23. -33. -43. -52. -60. -67. -71. -73. -75. -78. -82. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. -0. -8. -17. -31. -45. -61. -74. -84. -92. -99.-103.-103.-103.-103.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.6 126.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 984.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##