* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 66 67 64 60 57 52 42 34 27 23 24 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 66 67 64 60 57 52 42 34 27 23 24 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 64 63 58 52 46 39 33 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 15 14 11 8 13 17 21 21 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 4 1 4 1 3 0 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 31 34 36 51 68 87 108 116 104 109 110 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 142 140 133 128 123 118 112 107 104 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 64 66 62 60 57 54 51 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 13 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -51 -52 -58 -53 -60 -57 -58 -49 -60 -53 -37 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 10 15 15 16 -11 -13 -14 -15 -24 -16 -24 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 0 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 422 447 479 516 532 584 656 759 830 903 989 1091 1195 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.6 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.8 116.0 117.3 118.8 120.2 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 7. 4. 0. -3. -8. -18. -26. -33. -37. -36. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.9 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.53 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 271.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 24.1% 23.1% 19.1% 13.6% 16.1% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.1% 8.2% 6.6% 4.6% 5.6% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##