* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 35 35 36 36 35 33 29 26 25 24 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 35 35 36 36 35 33 29 26 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 30 29 29 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 26 26 24 20 16 19 16 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 0 -2 -4 -1 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 240 238 239 236 227 242 237 248 243 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.0 26.2 26.0 24.6 23.6 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 130 129 128 123 125 124 109 98 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -55.6 -55.5 -55.9 -56.5 -56.8 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 40 41 40 37 34 36 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 12 18 19 15 0 -32 -48 -48 -40 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -12 -11 8 1 -14 -3 27 26 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 9 14 11 13 11 10 7 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 45 45 11 104 323 541 767 991 1209 1437 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.9 24.4 25.9 27.5 29.3 31.2 33.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.7 158.4 159.1 159.8 160.4 161.9 163.3 164.7 165.8 166.6 167.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 17 7 7 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -20. -21. -22. -24. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -10. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.4 157.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##