* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 59 59 58 54 53 47 40 33 27 23 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 59 59 58 54 53 47 40 33 27 23 20 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 56 56 55 52 47 43 38 32 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 10 10 9 14 15 9 9 13 17 19 21 21 20 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 0 0 2 5 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 52 40 31 30 55 50 66 108 119 107 109 113 107 92 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.1 24.4 24.2 24.5 23.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 146 143 139 133 128 124 119 113 106 103 107 98 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 71 65 64 63 65 60 58 56 53 49 47 46 46 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 15 18 19 19 18 18 17 15 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -30 -35 -34 -39 -35 -39 -38 -54 -47 -56 -54 -43 -22 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 14 7 13 6 13 -9 -10 -14 -16 -20 -9 -19 -14 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -6 -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 1 3 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 388 393 410 432 462 514 589 679 779 861 925 1017 1139 1284 1430 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.7 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.1 112.7 113.3 113.8 115.0 116.2 117.5 118.9 120.4 121.9 123.4 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. -1. -2. -7. -15. -22. -28. -32. -35. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.7 111.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.62 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.34 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.65 -4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 22.2% 21.1% 17.0% 11.8% 15.3% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 8.1% 7.3% 5.8% 4.0% 5.2% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##