* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 58 58 56 56 53 49 45 40 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 58 58 56 56 53 49 45 40 34 34 35 35 35 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 52 50 46 41 37 32 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 10 9 8 16 13 10 10 15 12 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 46 50 46 38 24 43 71 65 82 109 110 102 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.7 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 141 137 134 131 126 124 119 114 108 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 72 68 65 66 64 63 58 57 53 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 15 16 17 19 17 17 16 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -28 -34 -37 -39 -42 -49 -37 -48 -42 -42 -48 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 17 11 9 11 24 -1 -20 -13 -4 -24 -7 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 398 386 389 405 434 488 547 617 701 785 840 903 971 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 111.5 112.1 112.7 113.4 114.5 115.7 116.8 118.0 119.3 120.6 121.8 123.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 7 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 7 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -21. -21. -20. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.4 110.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.56 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 22.3% 20.7% 16.5% 11.5% 15.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.3% 7.2% 5.6% 3.9% 5.1% 3.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##