* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 72 73 73 70 66 60 53 48 42 38 34 30 27 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 72 73 73 70 66 60 53 48 42 38 34 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 66 69 70 73 72 69 64 57 50 44 39 35 31 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 9 7 6 10 9 15 10 8 4 7 12 12 14 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 97 90 70 86 96 79 82 90 67 70 54 76 113 136 164 179 203 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.4 27.8 27.0 25.9 25.1 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.1 23.6 23.6 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 146 148 142 133 120 112 107 104 105 107 102 97 97 103 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 57 56 54 51 48 46 46 47 48 46 44 41 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 15 16 15 14 14 15 14 11 10 7 6 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 26 16 10 16 9 20 33 46 37 38 22 24 16 8 1 200 MB DIV -4 -10 -12 10 11 15 2 14 1 11 -6 -12 -14 -21 -12 -6 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -5 -9 -11 -8 -2 -7 -2 -2 0 3 2 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1584 1608 1638 1665 1697 1741 1757 1781 1826 1874 1929 1997 2079 2079 1934 1779 1636 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.7 123.6 124.4 125.2 126.6 127.6 128.5 129.4 130.3 131.3 132.4 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 22 18 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 13. 13. 10. 6. 0. -7. -12. -18. -22. -26. -30. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.8 121.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.52 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 27.8% 23.6% 18.8% 15.2% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 8.3% 5.2% 2.7% 3.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 12.9% 9.6% 7.2% 6.5% 6.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##