* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 55 54 54 52 49 47 45 41 36 30 26 23 23 24 V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 55 54 54 52 49 47 45 41 36 30 26 23 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 54 54 51 48 43 38 34 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 15 12 16 16 13 15 14 16 19 19 18 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 0 0 1 3 6 0 5 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 43 46 50 47 37 65 66 82 103 125 112 115 107 98 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.4 24.0 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 145 140 135 131 129 126 123 118 113 105 101 96 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 72 69 66 68 65 62 59 54 51 50 48 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 17 16 17 18 17 17 17 16 14 10 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -26 -33 -35 -47 -51 -52 -46 -56 -49 -65 -56 -33 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 15 15 2 0 2 7 -14 -14 -38 -11 -23 -12 -22 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -5 -3 -7 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 1 2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 446 423 413 416 432 492 538 591 663 752 825 874 942 1021 1122 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.3 21.8 22.2 22.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.0 111.6 112.2 112.9 114.0 115.1 116.1 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.1 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 8 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -19. -25. -29. -32. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.59 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.14 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.64 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 18.6% 17.4% 13.8% 9.4% 12.6% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.5% 5.9% 4.6% 3.2% 4.2% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##