* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 54 57 61 65 64 63 59 56 53 48 43 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 54 57 61 65 64 63 59 56 53 48 43 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 50 52 52 53 51 48 44 39 34 28 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 11 7 10 9 12 11 16 10 11 9 11 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 0 1 2 0 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 19 37 45 29 32 36 42 55 69 72 86 106 95 110 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.2 25.3 24.4 23.6 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 150 150 150 148 141 137 134 129 124 115 105 97 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 75 74 72 74 71 73 67 64 60 58 53 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 14 15 15 17 16 17 17 17 17 15 14 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 2 4 -9 -6 -28 -29 -48 -41 -40 -21 -29 -38 -57 -62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 28 35 46 33 28 5 -13 19 -12 3 -3 -2 -26 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 -5 -7 -4 -4 -3 -7 -5 -6 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 351 407 465 479 470 471 500 539 540 565 607 681 729 790 881 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.7 22.3 22.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.7 109.6 110.3 111.1 112.4 113.5 114.4 115.3 116.2 117.2 118.4 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 13 12 13 15 12 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 16. 20. 19. 18. 14. 11. 8. 3. -2. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.7 107.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 23.8% 21.6% 17.1% 12.0% 18.4% 15.9% 11.9% Logistic: 4.1% 14.4% 7.6% 3.2% 1.3% 6.9% 3.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 13.3% 9.8% 6.8% 4.4% 8.5% 6.6% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##