* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 52 56 64 70 73 73 72 69 64 60 54 48 44 38 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 52 56 64 70 73 73 72 69 64 60 54 48 44 38 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 56 64 70 74 74 72 67 62 56 50 42 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 10 10 11 5 3 3 8 11 14 14 13 13 13 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -7 -3 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -1 -1 0 -3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 72 74 79 95 112 114 105 36 60 76 75 86 82 88 76 86 80 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.7 25.8 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.4 23.8 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 151 140 140 137 129 119 113 110 109 105 98 98 94 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 62 60 58 56 57 57 59 57 59 55 54 51 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 14 16 18 17 16 17 17 16 15 14 11 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 28 27 19 32 17 18 -4 7 8 31 40 42 36 29 15 200 MB DIV 42 58 67 54 42 35 20 32 10 -1 2 20 6 -16 -21 -4 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -8 -4 -3 0 -3 -2 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1389 1408 1436 1472 1513 1578 1622 1665 1708 1714 1734 1751 1773 1779 1815 1862 1897 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.8 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.5 122.2 123.6 124.9 125.9 126.8 127.6 128.3 129.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 24 24 14 16 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 24. 30. 33. 33. 32. 29. 24. 20. 14. 8. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.1 116.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.31 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.79 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 23.6% 23.2% 19.0% 13.1% 20.3% 28.1% 30.3% Logistic: 4.4% 18.0% 9.7% 5.8% 10.2% 7.2% 7.4% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 15.0% 2.9% 0.7% 1.0% 1.5% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 6.2% 18.9% 11.9% 8.5% 8.1% 9.7% 12.2% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##