* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 70 74 72 71 67 64 59 55 50 44 37 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 56 60 67 70 74 72 71 67 64 59 55 50 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 56 60 63 64 64 61 56 50 45 38 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 11 9 6 10 8 14 9 12 8 8 9 13 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 0 -1 -2 0 3 3 1 2 1 2 0 5 0 SHEAR DIR 28 352 358 11 13 9 14 7 35 33 46 49 51 71 94 102 88 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.8 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 149 150 151 151 147 140 137 133 128 119 110 100 91 85 77 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 76 74 74 72 75 71 70 66 64 60 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 17 19 20 19 22 21 23 22 22 21 20 19 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 0 1 -3 -7 -26 -38 -41 -41 -31 -28 -45 -57 -61 -60 -49 200 MB DIV 38 36 39 42 42 39 16 21 19 13 10 -4 11 -19 -12 -15 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -3 -5 -5 -7 -3 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 0 -2 LAND (KM) 332 359 399 439 467 412 422 471 503 515 551 607 674 730 796 853 919 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.7 108.5 109.3 110.0 111.3 112.5 113.6 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 14 12 13 13 9 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 9. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 29. 27. 26. 22. 19. 14. 10. 5. -1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.0 106.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.40 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.42 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 21.8% 21.3% 17.5% 11.9% 18.9% 16.2% 12.4% Logistic: 4.7% 14.5% 8.1% 3.2% 1.3% 8.1% 6.5% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 7.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 5.9% 14.6% 10.4% 7.1% 4.5% 9.4% 7.7% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##