* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/22/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 56 61 71 76 77 75 71 68 64 62 56 53 48 43 V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 56 61 71 76 77 75 71 68 64 62 56 53 48 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 47 51 55 61 66 67 68 66 63 59 53 46 39 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 10 7 7 6 8 6 5 8 7 8 7 6 4 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 0 3 3 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 37 38 40 2 6 357 8 38 33 40 67 74 76 67 99 98 134 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.0 27.3 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.7 22.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 152 150 152 150 143 135 128 123 116 105 100 97 87 76 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 8 8 6 6 4 5 3 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 76 75 77 73 73 71 71 68 69 65 66 62 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 15 14 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 19 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -10 -15 -4 6 2 2 -13 -18 -5 8 8 13 -4 -24 -27 -12 200 MB DIV 42 58 47 47 45 35 34 14 2 8 22 13 20 9 5 7 6 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 332 327 316 326 358 427 343 313 326 308 285 314 362 357 364 378 403 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.7 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.6 106.5 107.3 108.1 109.5 110.8 111.9 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.1 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 28 24 14 12 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 32. 36. 37. 35. 31. 28. 24. 22. 16. 13. 8. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 104.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.81 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.59 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 24.4% 22.8% 18.5% 12.9% 19.7% 18.4% 17.6% Logistic: 11.5% 39.3% 24.4% 12.7% 8.2% 30.5% 16.0% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 32.3% 11.6% 5.3% 0.6% 9.2% 4.1% 0.3% Consensus: 8.5% 32.0% 19.6% 12.2% 7.2% 19.8% 12.8% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/22/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##