* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/21/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 43 38 35 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 43 38 35 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 38 34 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 5 6 10 16 17 27 32 31 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 274 274 283 273 272 260 257 255 241 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.5 23.9 23.6 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.1 22.2 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 109 103 100 88 93 97 94 84 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 50 47 45 45 43 44 47 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 20 19 16 14 12 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 32 29 19 10 -14 -21 -50 -71 -96 -85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 0 0 -14 -19 -23 -5 3 -2 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 6 4 4 5 6 14 12 26 22 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1459 1542 1632 1719 1812 1872 1925 1826 1737 1714 1719 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.8 24.3 26.0 27.8 29.6 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.2 127.6 128.9 130.2 131.5 134.0 136.3 138.4 140.3 141.9 143.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -4. -10. -17. -19. -20. -21. -23. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -22. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -12. -15. -22. -26. -32. -41. -50. -60. -63. -65. -67. -70. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.6 126.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 367.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/21/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##