* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 39 38 36 36 37 35 36 30 27 26 25 21 17 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 39 38 36 36 37 35 36 30 27 26 25 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 38 37 35 34 33 32 33 33 31 30 29 28 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 11 13 10 13 9 8 14 22 27 25 20 17 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 5 2 3 3 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 258 249 234 234 237 251 279 287 259 221 218 215 231 213 221 217 220 SST (C) 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.1 24.9 24.7 23.9 22.9 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 126 125 126 130 130 132 132 131 128 124 112 110 102 92 80 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 39 36 36 39 41 42 44 44 40 41 41 42 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 15 16 13 13 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 58 46 44 37 31 27 14 16 14 30 17 -8 -47 -84 -89 200 MB DIV 15 0 -24 -16 -17 -10 -27 -21 3 8 4 5 -17 12 0 10 23 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 3 5 1 0 1 2 3 11 14 23 21 17 15 14 LAND (KM) 1474 1354 1234 1114 995 756 547 379 240 177 209 294 449 610 808 1055 1293 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.5 20.3 21.5 23.2 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.7 141.9 143.0 144.2 145.3 147.6 149.6 151.2 152.5 153.3 154.0 154.8 155.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 7 6 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -1. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -10. -9. -15. -18. -19. -20. -24. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 140.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 346.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##