* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 43 40 38 35 32 32 32 32 31 27 26 22 20 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 43 40 38 35 32 32 32 32 31 27 26 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 48 46 42 40 38 36 35 34 35 35 34 33 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 12 11 15 12 13 9 11 11 18 23 30 31 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 -1 3 3 4 0 0 1 -2 -2 -4 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 234 233 249 255 253 248 226 268 275 260 236 235 214 223 216 219 202 SST (C) 24.4 25.1 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 26.1 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 114 119 120 121 119 125 129 132 130 128 125 122 120 114 112 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 43 42 39 36 37 40 40 41 41 42 38 37 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 16 17 16 15 15 15 15 16 14 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 62 65 63 49 39 39 36 20 11 14 43 33 18 -14 -39 200 MB DIV -5 -3 8 8 -6 -22 -22 -18 -28 6 9 -2 10 10 21 4 8 700-850 TADV 3 5 2 1 3 4 5 1 0 2 3 9 12 20 25 24 14 LAND (KM) 1840 1720 1599 1485 1370 1129 899 680 501 367 271 245 275 362 497 650 811 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.0 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.4 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.4 139.5 140.6 141.7 144.0 146.2 148.3 150.0 151.3 152.4 153.3 154.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -20. -23. -23. -23. -23. -24. -28. -29. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 137.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##