* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 43 42 38 35 29 26 24 25 23 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 43 42 38 35 29 26 24 25 23 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 42 38 36 33 31 30 29 29 28 28 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 11 10 12 15 13 10 9 11 18 25 30 34 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 220 228 231 256 259 244 243 251 264 247 262 222 224 222 231 225 230 SST (C) 24.0 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.8 25.6 26.3 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.3 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 103 107 113 118 119 122 119 126 129 129 128 125 121 120 115 113 110 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 47 44 43 39 38 40 41 40 42 42 39 38 38 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 19 17 17 16 15 15 15 14 15 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 68 66 64 56 44 42 38 30 16 12 24 27 20 -6 -23 200 MB DIV -6 1 1 20 10 -28 -22 -24 -33 -13 17 18 12 6 3 2 8 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 2 1 4 5 0 -1 1 3 6 9 17 21 27 20 LAND (KM) 1966 1850 1735 1620 1505 1276 1035 816 627 460 336 278 286 335 423 535 668 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.9 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.4 21.2 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 140.4 142.6 144.9 147.0 148.8 150.4 151.7 152.8 153.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -13. -17. -20. -26. -29. -31. -30. -32. -32. -36. -39. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 19.9 136.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##