* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 49 47 42 38 36 33 30 31 31 29 27 24 24 21 V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 49 47 42 38 36 33 30 31 31 29 27 24 24 21 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 54 51 48 44 41 39 38 36 35 34 34 33 32 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 9 11 10 13 12 9 11 12 15 23 24 26 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 2 1 0 0 0 4 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 203 225 222 217 237 250 248 272 271 258 261 225 222 210 224 214 219 SST (C) 24.1 24.0 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.6 26.0 26.6 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 107 113 119 119 120 123 129 131 130 128 125 121 122 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 51 48 47 46 46 42 40 35 38 40 42 43 45 44 40 40 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 17 16 17 17 16 17 17 17 17 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 64 69 64 57 47 43 45 35 21 10 10 18 12 6 -21 200 MB DIV -8 -2 1 5 17 -14 -13 -26 -17 -20 13 32 22 9 4 17 6 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 1 1 4 3 2 1 2 5 9 12 17 17 19 LAND (KM) 2082 1966 1850 1735 1620 1380 1150 910 700 512 367 267 238 261 308 414 528 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.5 19.6 19.9 20.4 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.9 136.0 137.1 138.2 139.3 141.6 143.8 146.1 148.1 149.9 151.3 152.4 153.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 9 8 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -18. -22. -24. -27. -30. -29. -29. -31. -33. -36. -36. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.7 134.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##