* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 57 56 56 52 48 42 36 29 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 57 56 56 52 48 42 36 29 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 50 46 42 37 31 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 7 7 3 6 6 5 14 13 14 15 11 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 4 6 4 3 3 -2 2 1 3 7 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 130 140 165 147 140 143 171 281 291 282 280 252 238 209 189 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 22.9 22.9 22.5 22.6 21.5 21.2 21.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 136 134 124 114 104 92 92 88 89 76 73 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 70 66 61 58 56 55 55 52 52 50 46 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 29 28 28 26 25 22 20 17 17 15 11 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 33 42 46 47 42 17 2 -9 -45 -77 -109 -128 -143 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 35 7 11 11 -5 1 3 0 -16 7 23 25 3 34 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 10 12 15 11 11 11 9 11 18 24 31 22 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 829 869 906 960 1023 1181 1313 1473 1644 1719 1736 1747 1685 1652 1623 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.2 21.0 22.0 23.4 25.1 27.1 28.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.1 118.0 119.1 120.1 122.4 124.9 127.5 130.0 132.5 134.6 136.4 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -16. -17. -20. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -26. -27. -32. -39. -48. -49. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.69 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 6.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 24.3% 23.1% 18.5% 13.0% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 10.0% 8.3% 6.4% 4.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##