* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 68 68 67 60 56 51 44 38 35 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 68 68 67 60 56 51 44 38 35 30 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 61 61 60 56 51 44 38 32 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 3 2 6 5 3 5 3 13 12 10 9 11 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 2 2 6 2 4 2 5 -2 3 0 4 9 6 6 SHEAR DIR 317 299 162 175 168 161 173 179 326 284 288 281 272 210 190 187 214 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.0 24.1 23.1 22.8 22.5 22.6 21.7 21.2 21.0 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 140 138 133 124 113 104 94 91 88 89 79 73 71 65 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 74 72 67 61 58 56 54 52 49 50 45 42 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 29 28 29 26 25 23 20 18 17 13 9 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 18 23 24 42 39 35 15 12 -9 -43 -66 -91 -108 -118 -133 200 MB DIV 46 39 57 49 38 19 -23 9 -25 -18 0 2 8 27 17 15 -5 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 7 8 18 12 10 8 11 10 14 19 18 22 0 1 LAND (KM) 762 799 845 878 913 1032 1181 1305 1451 1622 1714 1728 1737 1673 1630 1573 1502 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.8 21.7 23.0 24.7 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.4 116.3 117.2 118.1 120.2 122.4 124.7 127.1 129.6 131.9 134.1 135.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 8 8 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -14. -14. -16. -19. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 0. -4. -9. -16. -22. -25. -30. -37. -48. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.43 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 7.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 36.3% 29.4% 22.9% 15.7% 19.8% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 14.1% 5.9% 3.0% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 17.0% 11.8% 8.6% 5.5% 7.2% 4.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##