* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 66 68 71 73 72 67 60 55 49 44 39 33 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 62 66 68 71 73 72 67 60 55 49 44 39 33 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 64 63 60 54 48 42 37 33 28 23 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 3 2 3 8 3 3 3 9 12 12 21 31 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 1 6 1 5 2 4 -1 1 9 3 7 1 2 SHEAR DIR 335 325 293 254 214 174 174 221 305 288 271 278 238 206 198 200 213 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.5 25.2 24.2 23.0 22.9 22.8 23.1 21.7 21.2 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 142 140 136 130 119 116 106 93 92 92 95 80 74 70 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 76 75 73 66 62 56 55 52 49 48 43 37 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 28 25 24 22 20 18 15 11 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 6 14 14 26 40 36 49 23 23 0 -10 -35 -54 -69 -84 200 MB DIV 52 40 44 62 53 50 1 5 -8 -18 -1 3 16 19 20 18 15 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 3 3 12 21 14 8 12 8 5 19 16 19 10 11 LAND (KM) 746 767 799 841 870 953 1106 1251 1382 1553 1723 1808 1842 1808 1795 1724 1652 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.5 20.0 20.7 21.7 22.9 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.3 116.2 117.0 118.9 121.1 123.3 125.6 128.2 130.7 133.2 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 7 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 13. 12. 7. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -36. -50. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.49 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.65 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.26 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 30.9% 25.2% 20.9% 14.8% 19.5% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 15.5% 6.0% 3.2% 1.4% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 15.9% 10.5% 8.1% 5.4% 7.7% 4.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##