* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 65 62 55 48 41 35 30 26 24 22 19 19 18 17 V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 65 62 55 48 41 35 30 26 24 22 19 19 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 64 61 55 49 43 39 36 33 31 28 26 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 6 6 10 9 15 15 18 17 20 22 25 21 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 2 3 2 5 -1 0 -1 1 2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 120 140 185 183 176 229 233 250 259 266 263 265 278 277 266 264 256 SST (C) 24.4 24.0 25.3 25.6 25.1 24.6 25.5 26.3 26.6 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 116 120 115 109 118 127 130 127 129 131 131 130 130 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 51 52 48 47 41 39 37 37 39 41 45 46 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 22 21 20 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 72 62 65 70 83 74 84 67 51 46 49 47 53 39 27 23 10 200 MB DIV 5 16 21 27 19 -6 10 -15 -36 -23 -19 -13 -31 -16 -27 -12 -10 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 5 5 0 3 -1 -1 -1 -6 -3 -2 3 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 1830 1910 1994 2087 2159 1905 1663 1423 1184 947 722 528 375 259 166 67 20 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.2 18.8 18.5 18.1 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.7 130.8 131.9 133.0 134.2 136.6 138.9 141.2 143.5 145.8 148.0 150.0 151.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 1 3 9 7 6 6 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -20. -27. -34. -40. -45. -49. -51. -53. -56. -56. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.4 129.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 517.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.79 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##