* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 75 79 83 85 81 75 68 63 58 49 45 41 36 28 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 75 79 83 85 81 75 68 63 58 49 45 41 36 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 68 71 72 73 73 69 63 58 52 47 41 36 32 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 12 9 3 4 5 3 4 3 4 10 12 16 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -2 -1 1 6 2 5 0 1 -1 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 5 330 332 329 321 318 125 134 87 120 110 258 294 276 258 241 235 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.4 26.7 26.1 25.8 24.7 23.7 23.0 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 144 138 134 135 127 131 125 122 111 101 94 99 97 93 85 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 75 75 76 76 69 62 57 54 51 48 49 49 42 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 30 30 32 31 30 28 26 25 20 19 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -1 -5 -2 4 12 33 45 44 69 57 61 34 14 -10 -44 -59 200 MB DIV 61 55 49 48 51 48 49 27 -2 2 -1 -8 -16 8 2 -3 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 -4 -3 -2 -2 12 10 9 6 6 10 0 7 4 15 19 LAND (KM) 755 758 771 796 831 938 1032 1176 1349 1488 1638 1828 1959 1938 1747 1669 1668 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.9 113.7 114.6 115.4 117.2 119.1 121.1 123.4 125.8 128.3 131.1 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 13 7 4 5 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 21. 15. 8. 3. -2. -11. -15. -19. -24. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.4 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 166.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.3% 29.2% 24.8% 20.7% 14.5% 19.4% 14.7% 9.9% Logistic: 9.8% 18.6% 7.8% 4.6% 2.6% 7.0% 2.3% 0.7% Bayesian: 2.7% 14.1% 5.0% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 9.6% 20.6% 12.5% 9.1% 6.1% 9.4% 5.7% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##