* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 70 64 61 57 50 44 39 35 32 28 27 26 25 23 23 V (KT) LAND 80 75 70 64 61 57 50 44 39 35 32 28 27 26 25 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 80 75 69 63 59 54 49 44 40 36 34 31 29 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 5 5 6 9 10 15 13 18 17 20 18 23 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 5 1 6 0 2 0 6 2 1 -4 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 198 197 186 199 209 196 233 236 241 244 246 255 263 269 270 259 253 SST (C) 24.8 24.7 24.4 24.1 25.2 24.7 24.7 25.5 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 107 104 115 110 110 119 123 122 125 127 129 131 131 134 133 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 52 49 50 48 47 44 40 38 38 41 41 45 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 21 20 22 20 18 17 17 16 14 14 13 13 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 68 82 69 75 90 72 80 54 52 44 43 34 30 29 19 33 200 MB DIV -2 12 27 22 20 13 -3 -6 -14 -24 -13 -47 -24 -31 -5 17 34 700-850 TADV 6 7 6 1 2 3 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 3 3 4 LAND (KM) 1681 1752 1825 1906 1990 2156 1914 1662 1411 1161 901 644 427 252 144 117 224 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.8 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.8 128.8 129.8 130.9 132.0 134.2 136.5 138.9 141.3 143.7 146.2 148.7 150.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 5 8 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -19. -23. -30. -36. -41. -45. -48. -52. -53. -54. -55. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.3 127.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##