* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 61 71 77 79 83 82 77 71 64 56 51 46 39 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 61 71 77 79 83 82 77 71 64 56 51 46 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 50 53 58 62 65 69 68 62 54 47 40 35 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 9 13 14 3 3 6 5 5 3 6 6 7 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 5 4 3 -4 2 3 3 1 3 1 0 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 12 351 341 343 332 316 353 21 151 142 174 81 125 231 246 235 237 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.2 22.9 22.6 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 147 144 139 136 136 133 127 118 113 105 92 90 96 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.0 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 74 73 76 75 76 73 69 64 61 58 56 53 52 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 29 32 34 34 37 38 36 34 32 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -3 0 0 -3 10 17 41 40 67 67 68 46 30 14 -6 200 MB DIV 123 123 111 96 67 55 70 46 42 18 38 -26 6 -5 -8 10 22 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -7 -3 -2 -1 0 3 10 8 10 1 3 5 7 10 18 LAND (KM) 651 696 726 725 732 764 844 934 1052 1203 1345 1488 1647 1790 1837 1901 1795 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.2 112.9 114.4 116.1 117.9 119.9 122.0 124.4 126.9 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 31 28 20 8 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 9. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 18. 15. 11. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 32. 34. 38. 37. 32. 26. 19. 11. 6. 1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 110.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.45 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.78 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 32.8% 25.2% 20.4% 14.5% 19.8% 24.0% 17.3% Logistic: 1.6% 5.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 2.2% 4.0% 2.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.0% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 5.4% 14.2% 10.5% 7.6% 4.9% 7.4% 9.4% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##