* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/17/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 87 82 77 68 60 55 45 39 35 33 31 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 95 91 87 82 77 68 60 55 45 39 35 33 31 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 85 79 73 61 55 50 45 40 36 33 31 30 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 3 6 4 3 3 8 12 11 12 11 13 18 20 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 2 2 4 1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 159 182 144 170 190 136 184 218 251 247 262 236 244 243 249 246 245 SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.3 25.0 24.4 24.7 25.3 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 115 112 109 106 113 107 110 116 123 126 127 130 133 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 53 53 52 49 50 48 47 43 40 38 41 44 46 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 22 20 19 18 18 17 15 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 71 70 78 85 87 85 74 75 63 59 44 46 41 39 37 200 MB DIV -21 -11 -2 3 18 23 2 -3 -11 2 -12 -21 -18 -10 -2 19 14 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 3 3 0 4 4 2 4 2 1 -1 -4 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1515 1569 1627 1691 1759 1926 2095 2020 1789 1548 1308 1049 795 555 343 220 173 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.4 19.0 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.2 129.1 131.2 133.3 135.5 137.7 140.0 142.3 144.8 147.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 6 7 7 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -30. -36. -40. -43. -46. -47. -48. -49. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -35. -40. -50. -56. -60. -62. -64. -66. -66. -67. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.1 125.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 628.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/17/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##