* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 83 79 76 69 60 52 46 38 33 31 30 30 30 30 33 V (KT) LAND 90 88 83 79 76 69 60 52 46 38 33 31 30 30 30 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 82 77 72 63 53 48 43 39 35 33 32 31 30 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 5 3 5 1 5 10 13 14 15 11 14 14 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 0 -1 -1 1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 62 136 168 160 144 193 183 215 227 256 270 271 258 261 251 262 266 SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 24.8 23.7 24.7 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 123 121 118 116 111 99 110 104 109 116 123 125 127 131 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 63 61 58 59 54 54 50 53 49 47 42 41 39 41 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 24 24 25 25 24 22 22 21 19 20 19 18 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 61 62 69 76 76 82 87 82 85 73 74 64 73 60 59 42 35 200 MB DIV 10 3 1 0 0 14 15 -15 3 -2 2 -1 6 -16 -13 -18 -2 700-850 TADV -2 2 1 0 -1 4 -1 1 3 3 4 5 0 -3 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1403 1454 1492 1538 1588 1714 1875 2055 2039 1788 1537 1266 1006 748 501 289 187 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.6 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.4 125.2 126.1 126.9 128.8 130.9 133.1 135.3 137.7 140.1 142.7 145.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 6 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -25. -31. -35. -39. -41. -43. -44. -45. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -10. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -10. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -11. -14. -21. -30. -38. -44. -52. -57. -59. -60. -60. -60. -60. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.7 123.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##