* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 29 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 29 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 25 23 22 20 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 26 27 34 35 41 41 42 44 37 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 2 1 0 0 4 5 -1 -2 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 286 280 267 256 251 259 251 253 249 241 237 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 25.0 25.2 25.7 25.9 25.5 25.9 25.6 25.9 25.2 25.8 25.0 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 115 121 123 119 123 120 123 116 122 114 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.9 -56.1 -56.5 -56.2 -56.1 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 41 41 39 39 37 40 40 43 45 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 15 18 17 15 13 13 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 28 30 39 42 48 56 53 50 53 43 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -28 -6 -1 -7 11 33 -2 -1 7 4 32 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 6 4 6 7 7 3 8 3 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1094 986 881 780 687 531 401 332 286 375 575 829 1079 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.7 25.3 26.0 26.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.9 147.0 148.2 149.3 151.6 153.9 156.2 158.6 161.1 163.7 166.3 168.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 756 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -11. -22. -33. -43. -47. -47. -49. -52. -59. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -9. -20. -30. -37. -41. -40. -46. -51. -58. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.4 144.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##