* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 91 92 90 86 81 74 68 61 56 50 47 46 45 44 46 45 V (KT) LAND 90 91 92 90 86 81 74 68 61 56 50 47 46 45 44 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 89 86 82 73 66 58 54 49 44 41 38 37 37 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 5 1 2 4 8 11 10 10 10 11 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 3 3 -4 1 -1 1 0 2 0 0 2 3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 79 81 60 84 72 47 171 287 222 215 251 233 242 242 233 236 235 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.4 25.4 24.5 24.3 24.6 23.8 24.6 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 130 128 127 117 108 106 109 101 110 120 123 126 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 65 62 59 54 54 50 52 49 49 43 41 38 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 27 25 25 25 25 23 23 22 21 21 20 19 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 62 63 73 75 86 87 84 89 75 68 73 72 67 67 54 200 MB DIV 26 13 17 8 6 -10 6 8 -8 11 -2 -4 2 0 -14 -13 -16 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 7 0 1 7 4 3 4 0 -1 3 7 LAND (KM) 1298 1347 1401 1460 1502 1611 1765 1932 2128 1957 1694 1433 1172 913 668 451 244 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.7 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.6 123.4 124.2 125.1 126.9 129.0 131.2 133.6 136.1 138.6 141.1 143.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -22. -27. -32. -37. -39. -41. -42. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. -0. -4. -9. -16. -22. -29. -34. -40. -43. -44. -45. -46. -44. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.1 121.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 455.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.48 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 7.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/16/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##