* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062016 07/15/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 54 62 67 73 75 75 75 71 68 64 62 59 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 45 54 62 67 73 75 75 75 71 68 64 62 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 46 52 56 60 63 65 63 58 51 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 8 9 10 7 7 9 4 6 7 9 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 3 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 48 52 45 29 8 2 343 359 358 280 268 266 253 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.0 26.7 25.8 25.6 24.4 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 148 149 150 148 142 138 141 139 133 130 122 120 108 92 89 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 78 76 75 74 74 70 68 63 57 54 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 20 20 21 22 22 21 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -17 -9 -5 -1 1 0 12 15 20 37 43 75 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 92 72 67 68 88 71 70 45 31 15 21 14 10 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -7 -3 -2 0 -2 7 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 552 576 603 645 696 800 820 862 944 1011 1098 1214 1326 1445 1588 1760 1845 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.4 110.2 111.8 113.5 115.1 116.7 118.4 120.1 121.9 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 23 18 20 23 22 13 7 9 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 24. 32. 37. 43. 45. 45. 45. 41. 38. 34. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.85 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.51 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.89 -6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.47 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.70 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 21.8% 20.3% 16.1% 0.0% 18.1% 16.6% 23.6% Logistic: 1.2% 7.3% 3.5% 1.3% 0.8% 6.4% 31.3% 16.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 10.4% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3% Consensus: 4.1% 13.2% 9.5% 6.2% 0.4% 8.3% 16.2% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 SIX 07/15/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##