* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 35 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 35 30 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 41 39 36 31 28 25 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 11 9 15 25 26 36 38 45 47 43 31 22 37 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 5 5 5 2 0 0 1 3 -1 1 0 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 285 305 314 322 316 271 275 263 276 271 262 253 241 259 310 334 335 SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.3 24.3 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.6 25.2 25.6 25.4 25.6 25.1 25.9 25.2 25.3 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 108 108 106 106 108 114 113 119 115 120 118 120 115 124 116 117 125 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -55.0 -55.6 -55.4 -55.5 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 53 49 47 47 47 44 44 42 43 44 46 44 44 40 42 40 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 20 19 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 43 41 46 38 37 35 42 50 37 42 40 40 31 22 14 13 13 200 MB DIV 8 9 -2 -10 -16 -14 -9 -12 9 -16 0 -6 -5 11 20 11 7 700-850 TADV 13 14 7 3 2 8 3 5 5 1 3 5 8 5 10 4 17 LAND (KM) 1821 1704 1589 1468 1348 1104 894 727 575 424 344 270 372 592 844 1123 1392 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.5 139.7 140.9 142.1 144.6 146.9 148.9 151.1 153.5 156.0 158.8 161.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 10 11 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. -37. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -25. -32. -39. -47. -52. -58. -61. -63. -66. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 137.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##