* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 85 88 92 91 87 77 70 63 58 52 48 44 43 40 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 85 88 92 91 87 77 70 63 58 52 48 44 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 79 82 84 86 84 79 72 65 60 56 52 47 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 9 11 11 12 7 8 6 4 3 6 10 9 16 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 2 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 30 26 40 40 46 65 4 3 314 307 245 265 262 279 280 273 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.1 27.0 26.4 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.6 25.6 25.6 25.1 25.4 26.1 25.6 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 142 136 134 128 125 117 110 109 119 120 115 118 126 121 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 67 69 66 63 57 57 53 54 48 49 43 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 28 30 29 30 28 27 25 24 22 21 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 49 58 59 61 62 62 77 83 77 80 87 92 70 73 65 68 52 200 MB DIV 46 60 53 47 50 18 8 -35 -22 -21 14 -2 -33 -22 -22 -10 -18 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -7 -1 -6 0 1 6 0 6 5 6 2 1 LAND (KM) 923 968 1027 1105 1177 1306 1450 1597 1719 1862 2018 2187 1953 1655 1370 1077 796 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.2 116.4 117.7 118.9 121.3 123.5 125.5 127.5 129.5 131.6 133.8 136.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 10 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 18. 22. 21. 17. 7. -0. -7. -12. -18. -22. -26. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.80 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.69 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.4% 37.3% 30.4% 23.7% 16.1% 18.4% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 20.3% 22.9% 14.4% 10.1% 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 3.3% 10.0% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.7% 23.4% 16.1% 11.7% 7.5% 7.1% 4.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/14/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##