* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 53 50 44 38 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 53 50 44 38 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 54 51 47 40 35 29 25 22 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 5 8 13 16 14 15 20 31 35 40 37 41 43 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 0 -1 0 2 -2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 246 220 210 211 242 267 273 268 278 277 271 277 261 256 260 246 SST (C) 24.9 24.9 25.1 25.2 24.8 23.8 24.2 24.1 25.0 25.0 25.2 25.4 24.9 25.8 25.2 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 115 116 111 101 105 104 113 113 115 117 112 122 116 119 113 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 62 61 55 47 44 44 46 46 44 47 49 47 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 27 26 26 24 21 18 17 17 18 17 15 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 44 43 50 43 39 35 40 46 53 59 57 46 40 35 26 200 MB DIV 46 55 34 15 17 16 2 -12 1 -9 5 0 16 -16 -15 -13 -3 700-850 TADV 3 8 7 8 11 16 12 1 6 5 8 8 9 9 10 2 5 LAND (KM) 1895 1938 1988 2050 2112 1965 1750 1532 1309 1097 912 756 615 458 380 338 420 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.6 22.8 23.2 23.7 24.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.9 130.9 131.9 133.0 134.0 136.0 138.1 140.3 142.6 144.8 146.9 149.0 151.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -16. -18. -18. -16. -15. -16. -16. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -27. -34. -42. -49. -53. -55. -60. -65. -70. -74. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 129.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##