* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 73 81 88 96 96 93 88 78 69 62 56 51 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 60 66 73 81 88 96 96 93 88 78 69 62 56 51 49 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 74 79 85 86 83 79 70 58 51 45 42 40 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 6 5 5 11 11 4 1 1 4 7 7 8 7 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 8 6 2 0 1 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 87 127 116 100 74 31 38 45 21 121 236 285 289 312 319 273 262 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 28.0 27.8 27.0 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.8 24.4 23.9 24.9 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 145 143 134 128 128 123 121 107 102 112 109 114 115 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 70 71 72 72 74 72 71 66 59 53 50 48 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 32 34 36 35 37 37 35 33 32 30 29 28 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 52 61 70 76 76 78 74 65 51 47 41 42 38 50 48 62 67 200 MB DIV 64 63 59 33 30 44 23 63 36 29 20 -3 -9 -11 16 16 24 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 1 -2 -5 -3 -2 2 8 16 20 17 14 9 6 9 LAND (KM) 1425 1497 1576 1664 1757 1904 1981 2059 2132 2097 1892 1673 1436 1182 938 716 492 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.9 18.0 19.0 19.9 20.6 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.3 125.5 127.6 129.4 131.2 132.9 134.8 136.7 138.8 141.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 19 26 22 9 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 55.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 28. 36. 36. 33. 28. 18. 9. 2. -4. -9. -11. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.7 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.48 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 7.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.81 11.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 11.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.7% 54.9% 52.0% 41.2% 33.7% 24.8% 15.2% 10.4% Logistic: 29.8% 60.4% 35.7% 27.8% 18.6% 9.4% 2.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 12.1% 27.6% 11.2% 5.3% 3.4% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 24.5% 47.6% 33.0% 24.8% 18.6% 13.2% 6.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##