* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 58 63 73 82 87 87 83 80 75 69 63 60 58 56 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 58 63 73 82 87 87 83 80 75 69 63 60 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 54 57 66 75 79 79 76 74 68 60 54 49 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 10 8 8 4 8 9 2 3 3 3 1 7 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 -3 -3 2 1 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 69 61 70 87 95 109 33 74 55 77 118 99 208 356 329 351 297 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.0 27.6 28.1 27.1 26.2 26.5 26.0 26.0 25.1 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 150 145 141 146 135 126 128 123 123 114 110 112 113 116 120 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -50.8 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 71 72 68 69 71 69 69 66 62 57 54 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 21 22 26 29 32 32 32 32 32 30 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 28 40 47 56 57 71 74 73 75 76 67 73 72 67 62 64 52 200 MB DIV 103 90 84 63 51 58 35 58 60 48 -16 37 10 -12 -23 -14 10 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 0 1 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 6 7 8 1 9 4 LAND (KM) 1173 1235 1306 1383 1456 1614 1760 1886 1981 2076 2185 2049 1811 1568 1309 1033 764 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.8 118.9 120.1 121.3 123.6 125.7 127.7 129.6 131.4 133.3 135.3 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 28 41 37 22 24 9 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. 12. 8. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 37. 42. 42. 38. 35. 30. 24. 18. 15. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.4 116.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.54 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.62 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 30.5% 26.4% 21.1% 14.9% 26.5% 34.9% 16.7% Logistic: 4.4% 21.1% 9.1% 5.3% 2.8% 5.6% 5.5% 3.4% Bayesian: 2.6% 9.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 2.1% 0.1% Consensus: 7.3% 20.3% 13.3% 9.2% 6.0% 11.8% 14.2% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##