* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042016 07/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 53 60 67 81 92 100 104 102 100 96 90 83 76 71 68 V (KT) LAND 40 46 53 60 67 81 92 100 104 102 100 96 90 83 76 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 54 58 70 87 99 102 94 86 80 74 64 57 52 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 4 4 5 1 4 1 9 12 6 5 6 6 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 -2 -2 2 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 207 177 21 65 79 103 333 31 66 67 84 82 35 35 360 321 319 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.5 27.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 25.3 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 146 148 150 151 148 150 142 130 130 130 117 107 109 111 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 77 76 76 74 76 75 75 73 73 71 67 61 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 22 28 32 35 36 37 38 37 36 33 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 28 29 28 37 53 63 57 62 58 63 52 58 54 60 63 200 MB DIV 98 90 74 86 99 88 106 104 102 64 87 81 14 40 19 23 33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -2 -5 -5 -3 0 0 6 5 9 17 LAND (KM) 1111 1161 1177 1210 1252 1371 1502 1638 1767 1870 1959 2067 2188 1926 1641 1363 1093 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.7 118.9 121.2 123.5 125.7 127.7 129.7 131.7 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 18 20 24 49 36 31 15 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 20. 27. 28. 28. 28. 25. 21. 16. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 41. 52. 60. 64. 62. 60. 56. 50. 43. 36. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 CELIA 07/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 11.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.86 10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.68 8.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.83 -9.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.64 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 57% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 50.9% 44.1% 32.5% 19.5% 55.7% 66.9% 57.2% Logistic: 27.2% 68.6% 54.5% 42.2% 20.7% 64.7% 63.8% 32.1% Bayesian: 15.1% 63.2% 59.9% 37.7% 12.6% 45.9% 30.0% 26.2% Consensus: 19.8% 60.9% 52.8% 37.5% 17.6% 55.5% 53.6% 38.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 CELIA 07/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##