* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 54 61 74 86 98 108 111 107 104 97 89 80 75 70 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 54 61 74 86 98 108 111 107 104 97 89 80 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 60 75 94 106 105 94 84 75 65 56 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 5 5 6 2 1 3 10 15 14 13 14 6 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 -1 0 -5 0 -1 -2 2 0 2 0 0 4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 174 226 70 29 52 108 33 62 40 60 73 69 51 47 24 323 339 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.5 27.2 26.6 26.4 26.4 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 148 149 151 151 149 150 136 130 128 129 113 111 113 114 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 78 78 77 78 76 76 75 75 76 75 72 68 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 18 18 19 20 22 26 32 37 41 40 41 40 39 36 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR 10 13 19 22 25 31 46 60 61 63 68 68 58 56 51 44 42 200 MB DIV 92 80 79 80 95 115 89 126 119 88 102 110 42 20 23 28 21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -3 9 11 10 LAND (KM) 1102 1154 1199 1221 1250 1348 1477 1587 1699 1811 1897 1985 2109 2056 1768 1485 1206 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.2 114.0 114.9 115.8 117.8 120.0 122.2 124.3 126.4 128.4 130.3 132.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 19 22 34 49 30 31 7 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 10. 20. 30. 35. 33. 32. 29. 25. 20. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 19. 26. 39. 51. 63. 73. 76. 72. 69. 62. 54. 45. 40. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 9.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.89 8.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.66 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.68 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.31 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.6% 45.0% 32.4% 23.9% 15.6% 40.8% 55.4% 58.1% Logistic: 35.4% 79.1% 65.9% 53.1% 35.4% 69.9% 75.0% 45.9% Bayesian: 14.0% 63.5% 50.5% 29.6% 10.7% 63.2% 62.8% 44.8% Consensus: 21.7% 62.5% 49.6% 35.5% 20.6% 58.0% 64.4% 49.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##