* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 48 59 71 82 93 101 102 94 86 80 73 68 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 48 59 71 82 93 101 102 94 86 80 73 68 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 50 63 76 87 86 77 68 60 53 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 3 6 6 3 4 3 12 16 22 19 19 14 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -1 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 131 204 199 64 38 74 72 317 43 49 85 91 88 62 61 36 341 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 27.7 26.9 26.8 26.4 25.3 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 147 149 151 149 151 153 152 141 133 133 129 117 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 80 79 80 79 79 79 81 80 76 75 72 70 65 61 57 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 16 17 18 19 21 26 30 35 36 33 31 29 28 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 13 14 15 24 34 51 54 55 63 67 78 72 82 54 34 200 MB DIV 95 83 80 85 87 103 109 106 124 136 59 50 69 32 2 0 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 2 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1057 1105 1158 1210 1232 1312 1420 1563 1681 1800 1909 1967 2054 2198 1998 1727 1464 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.5 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.5 113.2 114.0 114.8 116.6 118.5 120.5 122.7 124.9 126.9 128.7 130.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 19 20 26 39 43 33 32 11 4 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 22. 29. 29. 24. 19. 16. 13. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 29. 41. 52. 63. 71. 72. 64. 56. 50. 43. 38. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.82 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.86 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.66 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.88 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.72 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 38.7% 25.6% 20.4% 0.0% 28.3% 43.1% 55.1% Logistic: 20.2% 72.2% 56.9% 43.9% 23.4% 65.0% 72.4% 55.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 22.5% 13.8% 5.2% 1.5% 21.4% 34.1% 61.3% Consensus: 11.8% 44.5% 32.1% 23.1% 8.3% 38.2% 49.9% 57.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##