* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042016 07/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 45 56 70 84 93 103 107 102 93 82 75 68 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 45 56 70 84 93 103 107 102 93 82 75 68 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 33 36 42 52 65 77 91 98 92 80 66 55 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 5 8 10 12 11 4 3 3 11 20 24 21 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 -1 2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 175 142 109 101 98 84 73 78 50 60 33 70 80 69 55 49 33 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 24.9 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 147 147 150 150 153 153 150 136 134 129 113 108 113 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 77 79 79 80 81 80 77 76 72 67 62 56 55 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 20 24 28 31 36 40 40 39 34 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 7 13 19 26 43 60 70 72 72 86 99 100 92 105 92 200 MB DIV 40 50 75 67 65 88 92 100 95 91 118 106 58 53 45 16 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 -7 -6 -5 -3 6 LAND (KM) 1043 1086 1134 1200 1233 1315 1421 1543 1657 1751 1847 1936 1996 2067 2178 1887 1600 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 14.0 15.0 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.7 114.6 116.3 118.1 119.9 121.8 123.7 125.7 127.7 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 23 21 19 19 24 38 36 30 33 28 5 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 18. 23. 30. 33. 30. 25. 19. 15. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 15. 26. 40. 54. 63. 73. 77. 72. 63. 52. 45. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 111.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 12.9% 5.6% 2.5% 0.5% 4.8% 8.6% 16.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 7.2% Consensus: 0.6% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.2% 1.6% 3.1% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042016 FOUR 07/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##