* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 111 110 106 97 91 82 73 62 53 47 41 35 28 24 19 V (KT) LAND 110 110 111 110 106 97 91 82 73 62 53 47 41 35 28 24 19 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 106 102 97 85 74 64 53 42 34 28 24 21 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 3 8 10 8 12 7 5 10 10 24 32 33 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 4 3 4 5 7 14 16 10 13 7 3 2 6 7 SHEAR DIR 32 52 72 111 106 85 101 125 161 231 258 239 242 247 247 242 247 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.5 25.3 25.0 24.1 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.7 25.0 24.9 25.2 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 143 137 132 128 115 112 103 102 106 106 109 113 111 114 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.1 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 65 67 64 58 50 42 37 30 25 25 26 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 35 36 36 35 34 34 31 29 25 21 18 15 13 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 25 35 43 43 57 54 50 41 28 18 12 15 11 21 21 1 200 MB DIV 85 95 90 63 50 67 52 56 29 18 7 1 8 0 -23 -8 -22 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 1 5 6 5 12 25 22 11 9 6 7 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1576 1634 1697 1756 1801 1880 1950 2010 2088 2058 1864 1666 1480 1279 1100 953 810 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.5 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.2 125.2 126.2 127.1 128.8 130.4 131.8 133.4 135.1 137.0 139.0 140.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 16 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -40. -47. -53. -58. -61. -63. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -20. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. -0. -4. -13. -19. -28. -37. -48. -57. -63. -69. -75. -82. -86. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 501.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.29 -1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 22.9% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 8.2% 5.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/06/16 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##