* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 82 91 106 114 119 113 100 93 84 75 67 60 54 47 V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 82 91 106 114 119 113 100 93 84 75 67 60 54 47 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 76 84 99 110 113 107 91 78 67 57 48 41 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 10 11 12 6 5 8 5 8 7 8 4 3 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 2 2 0 -1 0 3 8 9 8 9 10 15 10 8 SHEAR DIR 49 38 36 33 39 19 56 72 79 93 115 143 160 206 176 247 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.9 28.5 27.4 27.9 27.1 26.0 25.3 25.7 24.4 24.1 24.6 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 159 154 154 150 139 144 135 123 116 120 107 104 109 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 74 74 71 69 67 64 63 63 61 56 51 45 39 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 26 28 30 34 37 43 42 37 38 35 34 31 28 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 4 8 15 22 36 52 57 55 63 46 48 49 41 32 12 200 MB DIV 50 59 53 58 77 52 58 74 61 68 60 54 35 -1 0 13 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 0 0 7 5 13 19 18 15 11 LAND (KM) 1109 1181 1201 1234 1280 1407 1504 1615 1737 1819 1903 1997 2106 2006 1812 1640 1482 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.7 114.8 116.1 117.3 119.7 122.0 124.2 126.3 128.2 130.0 131.8 133.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 25 25 35 40 14 17 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 15. 26. 28. 22. 22. 18. 14. 10. 6. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 36. 51. 59. 64. 58. 45. 38. 29. 20. 12. 5. -1. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.5 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.44 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -8.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 11.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.26 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.6% 61.7% 50.4% 36.7% 24.7% 43.5% 32.0% 17.8% Logistic: 39.8% 69.4% 42.4% 34.4% 15.9% 34.4% 18.5% 5.9% Bayesian: 26.3% 76.7% 53.6% 38.2% 11.4% 54.3% 27.6% 0.2% Consensus: 30.9% 69.3% 48.8% 36.4% 17.4% 44.1% 26.1% 7.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##