* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 78 86 98 106 112 109 102 97 87 79 72 64 57 49 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 78 86 98 106 112 109 102 97 87 79 72 64 57 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 72 78 90 101 107 107 97 85 73 63 54 45 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 9 11 12 7 5 5 2 6 6 4 9 6 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 4 3 0 0 0 2 5 7 10 13 6 12 12 7 SHEAR DIR 53 46 30 52 54 26 61 73 84 10 87 126 141 209 255 222 221 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.4 28.3 27.9 26.5 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 154 152 151 154 149 148 143 129 123 121 114 106 107 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 70 72 71 71 70 68 66 65 61 55 48 42 37 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 29 31 33 36 40 40 39 38 36 33 32 29 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 2 8 10 13 31 42 54 60 69 69 61 61 54 46 24 200 MB DIV 41 64 71 73 57 26 58 75 77 36 61 59 35 5 3 1 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 -1 2 8 6 16 17 15 11 LAND (KM) 1073 1133 1196 1215 1248 1350 1458 1561 1681 1800 1889 1989 2098 2081 1882 1703 1547 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.8 113.9 115.1 116.3 118.6 120.8 123.0 125.1 127.2 129.2 131.1 133.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 24 20 23 26 50 21 16 15 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 13. 22. 24. 24. 22. 18. 13. 10. 6. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 23. 31. 43. 51. 57. 54. 47. 42. 32. 24. 17. 9. 2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.67 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 189.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 9.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 49.6% 40.8% 27.4% 20.0% 31.1% 21.8% 17.2% Logistic: 15.3% 44.2% 20.6% 14.7% 4.5% 16.5% 12.2% 5.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 42.1% 23.0% 9.8% 1.6% 17.9% 16.3% 0.7% Consensus: 12.3% 45.3% 28.1% 17.3% 8.7% 21.8% 16.7% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##