* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032016 07/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 79 88 104 110 115 115 112 106 98 88 80 73 67 62 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 79 88 104 110 115 115 112 106 98 88 80 73 67 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 73 82 91 106 117 119 117 108 93 78 68 58 49 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 10 9 9 11 13 7 5 8 6 11 3 5 3 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 1 -1 0 2 4 7 6 13 15 11 15 6 SHEAR DIR 107 69 66 57 65 56 30 79 73 74 71 81 99 159 217 260 266 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.0 28.2 26.8 26.1 25.8 25.8 24.6 24.3 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 155 153 152 152 152 145 147 132 124 121 121 109 106 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 70 73 72 70 68 65 63 62 62 55 46 43 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 25 31 33 38 41 42 41 41 37 35 32 29 28 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 2 2 10 18 28 44 57 70 72 80 68 70 72 60 57 200 MB DIV 50 39 42 56 66 65 42 49 74 59 63 62 38 3 -9 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 5 6 16 20 20 13 LAND (KM) 1026 1083 1150 1197 1215 1299 1422 1520 1646 1775 1873 1964 2088 2140 1924 1725 1545 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 112.0 113.1 114.2 115.3 117.6 119.9 122.1 124.4 126.6 128.6 130.4 132.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 22 21 23 39 35 12 19 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 23. 29. 31. 30. 27. 21. 16. 12. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 33. 49. 55. 60. 61. 57. 51. 43. 33. 25. 18. 12. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 110.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.68 10.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 10.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.53 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.46 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.70 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 10.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.50 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 1.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.3% 53.6% 46.9% 44.5% 25.3% 45.1% 28.3% 19.0% Logistic: 27.9% 59.1% 36.0% 28.3% 13.5% 36.4% 35.3% 17.9% Bayesian: 15.2% 66.8% 44.0% 24.0% 18.9% 51.5% 16.8% 0.6% Consensus: 25.8% 59.8% 42.3% 32.3% 19.2% 44.4% 26.8% 12.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 BLAS 07/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##