* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 35 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 32 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 23 28 28 30 31 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 3 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 235 233 227 227 229 243 246 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.2 24.5 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 121 114 112 110 111 115 107 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 41 40 38 37 35 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 0 -2 -3 1 -3 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -3 -18 -3 3 -4 -3 -31 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 1 3 0 7 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1494 1538 1588 1651 1719 1861 2008 2157 1979 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.6 126.6 127.7 128.7 130.6 132.4 134.1 135.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -20. -24. -25. -26. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -22. -31. -41. -46. -50. -53. -54. -57. -58. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 124.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.45 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##