* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 38 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 38 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 37 33 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 17 21 27 27 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 234 227 226 225 219 234 243 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.9 24.7 25.2 25.0 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 122 115 112 109 115 112 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 43 41 38 39 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -11 -8 0 -4 -5 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 1 1 -15 -7 -2 -13 -30 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 0 2 1 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1410 1480 1531 1584 1643 1778 1920 2068 2105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.3 125.4 126.5 127.5 129.4 131.2 133.0 134.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. -22. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -17. -27. -35. -39. -42. -44. -45. -46. -47. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##