* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032016 07/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 55 68 79 93 102 106 109 105 97 89 82 76 71 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 55 68 79 93 102 106 109 105 97 89 82 76 71 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 53 63 76 93 105 109 106 94 80 67 57 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 11 6 9 8 8 7 11 6 2 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 -6 0 1 6 7 11 11 12 SHEAR DIR 107 114 94 69 62 61 65 53 31 83 69 39 81 142 151 161 236 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.1 28.4 27.1 26.1 25.7 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 161 159 156 153 153 153 146 149 135 124 120 121 113 107 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 69 69 72 72 69 65 65 63 61 57 53 46 41 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 18 22 24 30 34 38 42 43 40 38 35 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 1 -3 -5 4 21 32 49 61 89 93 99 93 76 81 88 200 MB DIV 58 49 51 50 50 71 69 70 80 63 76 71 47 22 25 3 0 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 2 0 -1 -2 -6 -5 -6 -2 0 5 11 16 13 7 LAND (KM) 974 1004 1041 1095 1157 1234 1311 1430 1530 1653 1778 1865 1940 2018 2112 2118 1956 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.1 111.0 112.1 113.1 115.3 117.5 119.8 122.0 124.3 126.4 128.4 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 36 29 23 24 37 37 14 22 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 10. 20. 29. 34. 38. 38. 31. 25. 20. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 33. 44. 58. 67. 71. 74. 70. 62. 54. 47. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.91 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.78 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.37 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.77 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 23.8% 23.7% 19.7% 0.0% 20.7% 29.1% 44.3% Logistic: 7.8% 36.5% 17.8% 10.7% 7.9% 25.1% 40.9% 32.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 40.8% 14.1% 3.4% 4.1% 8.6% 16.0% 4.9% Consensus: 7.9% 33.7% 18.5% 11.3% 4.0% 18.1% 28.6% 27.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032016 THREE 07/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##