* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AGATHA EP022016 07/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 38 35 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 38 35 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 30 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 2 8 13 14 17 21 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 14 230 228 230 222 227 221 222 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.0 24.7 25.6 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 133 127 119 113 109 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 47 45 40 39 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 5 0 0 1 8 0 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 3 4 13 6 -11 6 -10 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1307 1355 1411 1482 1531 1650 1805 1956 2116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.4 18.4 18.3 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.2 123.2 124.3 125.4 127.5 129.4 131.1 132.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -0. -5. -11. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 121.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 5.0% 5.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 8.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022016 AGATHA 07/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##