* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 41 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 40 36 29 23 20 19 19 20 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 52 57 73 75 76 62 41 30 15 7 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 15 3 0 -10 0 2 5 -7 -3 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 241 231 225 229 243 247 247 239 240 280 275 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.0 22.1 19.0 9.1 3.4 8.6 8.5 7.5 8.0 8.4 8.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 95 84 70 67 67 66 65 63 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 118 91 80 69 N/A 66 65 63 62 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -48.8 -46.4 -44.8 -45.1 -45.4 -46.1 -46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 58 60 57 52 50 52 60 65 65 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 84 91 127 164 154 202 261 263 217 210 156 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 74 78 70 102 66 39 61 53 57 32 17 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 48 21 -94 -3 1 20 34 14 -4 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 55 114 391 399 365 256 278 694 1092 1426 1360 1227 1114 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.2 37.0 39.0 40.9 44.5 47.5 50.1 52.3 54.1 55.4 56.5 57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.2 74.6 71.0 66.9 62.8 55.2 49.1 43.7 38.7 34.3 31.0 28.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 34 36 37 35 30 24 21 18 14 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 29 CX,CY: 24/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -18. -30. -39. -42. -44. -45. -47. -55. -61. -63. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -4. -10. -18. -27. -36. -40. -44. -47. -53. -64. -69. -71. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.4 78.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 60.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 45 43 41 35 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 44 42 40 34 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT